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Hedging an Uncertain Future

The problem with pricing the future is you don't really know what will happen, but there's a danger that you won't plan for the worst case scenario.

This week Phil challenges Steve on how the futures market handles terminal risk, pointing out that oil prices slope downward over time simply because traders blindly assume the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Steve agrees and tears into the financial sector, explaining that modern pricing models dangerously mistake unquantifiable “uncertainty” for managea…

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